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Another look at the land model and the 2I7 neighborhood

Tyler printed and then scanned “details” of their land model, without any context or explanation.  As discussed in an earlier post, fewer than a third of land values actually follow this model, so let’s take a closer look at a particular neighborhood, “2I7” in Irvington; a commenter had asked about this in an earlier post.

Neighborhood “2I7” is the “village” area of Irvington and includes Main Street and its side streets, as well as Barney Park, Station Road and its side streets. There are about 401 parcels, of which 285 are “residential” parcels.

The land model published on their website is adjusted by a fudge factor in over 95% of the residences in this neighborhood, applying a 5% to 20% penalty, and some adjusting the land value 50% more than their published model. It seems that Tyler is admitting that their algorithm doesn’t work and is using these fudge  factors to chase the sales for the appearance of accuracy.

The land model assumes that the minimum value of any residential lot (0.3 acres) is $483,000, yet there were several sales in the neighborhood for larger lots and livable houses at values far less than this minimum value; some examples: one at $365,000 and another for $230,000. Clearly, this land model is inappropriate.

As we can see, based on the model, and the smallest parcel in the neighborhood, the first 0.3 acres is valued at $16million per acre, and after that, the remainder valued at $787,500 per acre, unless some of your lot is deemed to be “residual” or is divided legally into a separate parcel as “vacant land”, where that land would be valued at only $62,500 per acre.

So if you have a 0.2 acre parcel, Tyler would value the land at $617k, but if that same 0.2 acre parcel was legally two 0.1 parcels, the land would be valued at $544k; clearly this is a mistake.

The two charts below are just two demonstrations how ludicrous the model is:

valueperacre

The following assumes a change to “residual” value after 0.4 acres; that bend is arbitrary and may be applied per the whim of the Tyler adjuster:

landvalue

 

Some other notes on the neighborhood:

This neighborhood was one of the hardest hit, with Tyler’s initial preliminary assessment increasing the market value on 99% of the residences, more than half seeing their assessments increasing by 75%, and more than half seeing an increase of over $300,000

Between the preliminary assessment and the 2016 tentative rolls, Tyler made “corrections” on many of the residences, adjusting 41% downward, seemingly admitting that the whole algorithm is wrong.

This is another clear example of how Tyler Technologies got the reassessment completely wrong, yet the politicians and overseers of the project have 100% faith in the process, never once questioning it.

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